Betting Lines
| Spread | TNST -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | TNST -380 MORE +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNST +5 | 205 | Won |
| Massey | TNST -9.3 (-4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.8 (+54.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNST -7.5 (-2.5) | 142.4 (+62.6) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNST -7.9 (-2.9) | 143.7 (+61.3) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNST -8.4 (-3.4) | 142.3 (+62.7) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TNST -7.6 (-2.6) | 143.0 (+62.0) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | TNST 93 – 67 MORE |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MORE 94 – 86 TNST |
| Feb 28, 2025 | TNST 64 – 55 MORE |
| Dec 21, 2024 | MORE 74 – 68 TNST |
| Feb 2, 2024 | MORE 68 – 49 TNST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNST | MORE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 15-5 |
| Home | 10-2 | 11-2 |
| Away | 10-7 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.9 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 75.5 |
| Massey | -3.1 (#218) | -8.9 (#297) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.03 (#171) | -1.21 (#273) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.50 (#205) | -2.09 (#301) |
| RPI | 0.509 (#152) | 0.462 (#247) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNST | MORE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 35.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 62.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.0% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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