Betting Lines
| Spread | DREX -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | MONM +175 DREX -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MONM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONM +5 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | DREX -2.0 (+7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.6 (-4.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DREX -1.4 (+6.4) | 136.2 (-7.2) | 43% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DREX -3.0 (+8.0) | 137.1 (-8.1) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DREX -1.9 (+6.9) | 137.2 (-8.2) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DREX -1.8 (+6.8) | 138.0 (-9.0) | 41% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | MONM 65 – 57 DREX |
| Feb 13, 2026 | MONM 93 – 73 DREX |
| Jan 16, 2026 | DREX 73 – 51 MONM |
| Mar 1, 2025 | DREX 71 – 61 MONM |
| Jan 31, 2025 | MONM 104 – 97 DREX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MONM | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 13-5 |
| Home | 13-1 | 13-1 |
| Away | 2-13 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 67.1 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#182) | 4.5 (#105) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#139) | 0.57 (#128) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.47 (#145) | 0.65 (#132) |
| RPI | 0.516 (#143) | 0.532 (#119) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MONM | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 40.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 35.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 45.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 13.6% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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