Betting Lines
| Spread | MONM -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Under |
| Money | MONM -245 DREX +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MONM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DREX +22 | 124 | Lost |
| Massey | MONM -7.2 (-29.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.9 (-8.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MONM -4.5 (-26.5) | 129.4 (-5.4) | 69% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MONM -3.4 (-25.4) | 130.0 (-6.0) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONM -4.5 (-26.5) | 130.8 (-6.8) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MONM -4.5 (-26.5) | 129.4 (-5.4) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | MONM 65 – 57 DREX |
| Feb 13, 2026 | MONM 93 – 73 DREX |
| Mar 1, 2025 | DREX 71 – 61 MONM |
| Jan 31, 2025 | MONM 104 – 97 DREX |
| Feb 2, 2024 | MONM 67 – 62 DREX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MONM | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-4 | 12-4 |
| Away | 6-9 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 67.6 |
| Massey | -1.3 (#187) | -5.0 (#243) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.66 (#227) | -1.13 (#265) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.77 (#220) | -1.40 (#262) |
| RPI | 0.472 (#224) | 0.439 (#275) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MONM | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 66.5% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 27.9% |
Game Analysis
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