Betting Lines
| Spread | DREX -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | DREX -250 MONM +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DREX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DREX +10 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | DREX -7.2 (+2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.3 (-4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DREX -4.2 (+5.8) | 134.3 (-2.3) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DREX -6.0 (+4.0) | 136.8 (-4.8) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DREX -4.4 (+5.6) | 137.0 (-5.0) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DREX -4.4 (+5.6) | 135.4 (-3.4) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | MONM 65 – 57 DREX |
| Feb 13, 2026 | MONM 93 – 73 DREX |
| Jan 16, 2026 | DREX 73 – 51 MONM |
| Jan 31, 2025 | MONM 104 – 97 DREX |
| Feb 2, 2024 | MONM 67 – 62 DREX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DREX | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 10-8 |
| Home | 8-6 | 8-2 |
| Away | 7-7 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 75.4 |
| Massey | -2.1 (#200) | -6.1 (#265) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.43 (#207) | -0.78 (#239) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.54 (#208) | -1.09 (#251) |
| RPI | 0.482 (#214) | 0.475 (#227) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DREX | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 16.0% | 28.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 65.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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