Betting Lines
| Spread | DREX -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | DREX -112 MONM -108 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DREX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONM +20 | 166 | Lost |
| Massey | DREX -2.4 (-22.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.9 (+35.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DREX -1.5 (-21.5) | 134.0 (+32.0) | 61% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DREX -3.0 (-23.0) | 135.2 (+30.8) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DREX -2.0 (-22.0) | 135.3 (+30.7) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DREX -2.0 (-22.0) | 134.1 (+31.9) | 58% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | MONM 65 – 57 DREX |
| Jan 16, 2026 | DREX 73 – 51 MONM |
| Mar 1, 2025 | DREX 71 – 61 MONM |
| Jan 31, 2025 | MONM 104 – 97 DREX |
| Feb 2, 2024 | MONM 67 – 62 DREX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DREX | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 11-7 |
| Home | 12-4 | 10-4 |
| Away | 4-10 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -3.2 (#220) | -2.6 (#210) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.50 (#218) | -0.51 (#220) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.60 (#212) | -0.77 (#224) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#222) | 0.473 (#232) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DREX | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 66.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.7% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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