Betting Lines
| Spread | MONM -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | MONM -192 DREX +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MONM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONM +8 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | MONM -1.9 (+6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.5 (-10.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MONM -1.7 (+6.3) | 130.8 (-8.8) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MONM -1.4 (+6.6) | 132.0 (-10.0) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONM -2.0 (+6.0) | 132.7 (-10.7) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MONM -1.7 (+6.3) | 131.6 (-9.6) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | MONM 93 – 73 DREX |
| Jan 16, 2026 | DREX 73 – 51 MONM |
| Mar 1, 2025 | DREX 71 – 61 MONM |
| Jan 31, 2025 | MONM 104 – 97 DREX |
| Feb 2, 2024 | MONM 67 – 62 DREX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MONM | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-4 | 12-4 |
| Away | 6-9 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 67.6 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#183) | -3.0 (#214) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.17 (#180) | -0.41 (#215) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.36 (#198) | -0.54 (#215) |
| RPI | 0.503 (#181) | 0.494 (#201) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MONM | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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