Betting Lines
| Spread | ARIZ -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Under |
| Money | ARIZ -4000 CAL +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARIZ +26 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | ARIZ -23.2 (+2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.9 (-7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARIZ -17.6 (+8.4) | 158.3 (-2.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARIZ -21.3 (+4.7) | 155.5 (+0.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARIZ -18.3 (+7.7) | 159.5 (-3.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARIZ -18.1 (+7.9) | 158.6 (-2.6) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 30, 2023 | ARIZ 100 – 81 CAL |
| Feb 10, 2023 | ARIZ 85 – 62 CAL |
| Dec 4, 2022 | ARIZ 81 – 68 CAL |
| Mar 5, 2022 | ARIZ 89 – 61 CAL |
| Jan 23, 2022 | ARIZ 96 – 71 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARIZ | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 9-11 |
| Home | 15-1 | 10-6 |
| Away | 7-4 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 0-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 87.1 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 77.0 |
| Massey | 22.3 (#3) | 2.7 (#130) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.51 (#15) | 0.03 (#173) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.44 (#8) | 0.44 (#146) |
| RPI | 0.635 (#12) | 0.493 (#186) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARIZ | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.9% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 42.9 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.8 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.52 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 37.7% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 78.4% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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