Betting Lines
| Spread | ARIZ -21.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARIZ +28 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | ARIZ -21.9 (+6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.1 (+8.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARIZ -17.3 (+10.7) | 146.0 (+4.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARIZ -16.0 (+12.0) | 144.6 (+5.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARIZ -17.6 (+10.4) | 145.2 (+4.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARIZ -18.6 (+9.4) | 146.3 (+3.7) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 2, 2024 | ARIZ 91 – 65 CAL |
| Dec 30, 2023 | ARIZ 100 – 81 CAL |
| Feb 10, 2023 | ARIZ 85 – 62 CAL |
| Dec 4, 2022 | ARIZ 81 – 68 CAL |
| Jan 23, 2022 | ARIZ 96 – 71 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARIZ | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 33-4 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 5-15 |
| Home | 17-0 | 10-8 |
| Away | 9-3 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 7-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.0 | 63.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 66.1 |
| Massey | 21.4 (#2) | 2.4 (#129) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.72 (#1) | 0.25 (#149) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.29 (#5) | 0.58 (#129) |
| RPI | 0.642 (#4) | 0.479 (#221) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARIZ | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.52 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 17.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.6% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 76.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.9% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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