Virgil Cain is my name and I served on the Danville train. "The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down"-The Band
Pac-12 Conference · Haas Pavilion · February 10, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread ARIZ -19.5 Away covered
O/U 141.5 Over
Money CAL +1400 / ARIZ -8000
Model Predictions
Spread Total CAL win
Actual ARIZ +23 147 Lost
Massey ARIZ -17.0 (-6.0)
Massey Totals 143.1 (+3.9)
Bradley-Terry 2%
Weighted B-T 1%
Efficiency Plus ML ARIZ -14.8 (-8.2) 139.2 (+7.8) 13%
Baseline Tuned ML ARIZ -15.5 (-7.5) 139.9 (+7.1) 13%
Baseline ML ARIZ -15.6 (-7.4) 140.9 (+6.1) 12%
Baseline Plus ML ARIZ -16.6 (-6.4) 141.6 (+5.4) 12%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 2, 2024 ARIZ 9165 CAL
Dec 30, 2023 ARIZ 10081 CAL
Dec 4, 2022 ARIZ 8168 CAL
Mar 5, 2022 ARIZ 8961 CAL
Jan 23, 2022 ARIZ 9671 CAL

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings CAL ARIZ
Overall 3-29 28-7
Conference 2-18 14-6
Home 3-14 15-2
Away 0-12 6-4
Neutral 0-3 7-1
Last 5 0-5 5-0
Streak L16 L1
Avg Pts For 58.3 81.9
Avg Pts Against 70.1 71.1
Massey -4.0 (#238) 16.6 (#6)
Bradley-Terry -1.78 (#325) 2.99 (#7)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.76 (#302) 3.32 (#16)
RPI 0.421 (#317) 0.644 (#3)
Shooting & Four Factors CAL ARIZ
FG% 40.7% 48.8%
3PT% 29.8% 36.3%
REB / G 31.4 41.0
OREB / G 8.7 11.2
AST / TO 0.72 1.40
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 45.4% 55.8%
TOV% 21.0% 19.1%
ORB% 26.4% 33.3%
FT Rate 22.9% 27.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.3% 46.2%
Opp TOV% 16.6% 17.0%
DRB% 70.4% 73.5%
Opp FT Rate 22.5% 18.0%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.