Betting Lines
| Spread | LIB -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | NMSU +170 LIB -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NMSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NMSU +6 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | LIB -6.4 (+12.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.2 (+13.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIB -6.8 (+12.8) | 134.6 (+17.4) | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIB -4.7 (+10.7) | 137.6 (+14.4) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LIB -5.5 (+11.5) | 136.9 (+15.1) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIB -6.1 (+12.1) | 137.2 (+14.8) | 32% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | LIB 77 – 75 NMSU |
| Jan 15, 2026 | LIB 73 – 71 NMSU |
| Feb 14, 2025 | LIB 64 – 54 NMSU |
| Jan 19, 2025 | LIB 68 – 60 NMSU |
| Mar 1, 2024 | LIB 83 – 58 NMSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NMSU | LIB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 7-9 |
| Home | 12-3 | 12-3 |
| Away | 1-13 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.9 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 68.3 |
| Massey | -5.8 (#272) | 4.2 (#109) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.71 (#244) | 0.61 (#124) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.81 (#243) | 0.98 (#112) |
| RPI | 0.457 (#255) | 0.528 (#127) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NMSU | LIB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 1.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 16.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.7% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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