Betting Lines
| Spread | LIB -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | NMSU +145 LIB -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NMSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIB +2 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | LIB -2.5 (+0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.5 (+4.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIB -1.8 (-0.2) | 139.5 (+12.5) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIB -3.9 (+1.9) | 141.4 (+10.6) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LIB -3.6 (+1.6) | 143.0 (+9.0) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIB -1.9 (-0.1) | 142.0 (+10.0) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 15, 2026 | LIB 73 – 71 NMSU |
| Feb 14, 2025 | LIB 64 – 54 NMSU |
| Jan 19, 2025 | LIB 68 – 60 NMSU |
| Mar 1, 2024 | LIB 83 – 58 NMSU |
| Feb 2, 2024 | NMSU 79 – 73 LIB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NMSU | LIB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 17-3 |
| Home | 10-5 | 14-2 |
| Away | 3-8 | 11-3 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 75.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.8 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#169) | 5.2 (#101) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.66 (#224) | 1.83 (#55) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#205) | 2.03 (#64) |
| RPI | 0.481 (#217) | 0.596 (#37) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NMSU | LIB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 51.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 40.0% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 28.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 5.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 60.5% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 18.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.6% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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