They were all in love with dying, they we're doing it in Texas. "Pepper" - Butthole Surfers
Conference USA · Liberty Arena (VA) · January 19, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread LIB -6.5 Home covered
O/U 134.5 Under
Money LIB -290 / NMSU +240
Model Predictions
Spread Total LIB win
Actual LIB +8 128 Won
Massey LIB -8.1 (-0.1)
Massey Totals 133.7 (-5.7)
Bradley-Terry 79%
Weighted B-T 85%
Efficiency Plus ML LIB -7.3 (+0.7) 135.8 (-7.8) 76%
Baseline Tuned ML LIB -6.3 (+1.7) 133.9 (-5.9) 73%
Baseline ML LIB -6.4 (+1.6) 134.5 (-6.5) 69%
Baseline Plus ML LIB -6.4 (+1.6) 135.0 (-7.0) 71%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 12, 2026 LIB 7775 NMSU
Jan 15, 2026 LIB 7371 NMSU
Feb 14, 2025 LIB 6454 NMSU
Mar 1, 2024 LIB 8358 NMSU
Feb 2, 2024 NMSU 7973 LIB

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings LIB NMSU
Overall 28-7 17-15
Conference 13-5 10-8
Home 12-3 9-6
Away 9-2 8-6
Neutral 7-2 0-3
Last 5 2-3 5-0
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 73.7 67.7
Avg Pts Against 65.2 67.3
Massey 6.7 (#82) 2.2 (#126)
Bradley-Terry 1.14 (#83) 0.46 (#131)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.83 (#73) 0.89 (#110)
RPI 0.541 (#100) 0.526 (#133)
Shooting & Four Factors LIB NMSU
FG% 48.6% 43.0%
3PT% 38.9% 33.9%
REB / G 32.5 37.1
OREB / G 6.7 12.0
AST / TO 1.50 0.97
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 57.6% 49.3%
TOV% 16.0% 17.3%
ORB% 21.3% 34.1%
FT Rate 19.4% 23.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 46.4% 46.3%
Opp TOV% 17.4% 14.5%
DRB% 73.1% 69.1%
Opp FT Rate 19.8% 29.7%

Game Analysis

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