Betting Lines
| Spread | STMN -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | OMA +130 STMN -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OMA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OMA +4 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | STMN -0.2 (+4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.7 (-0.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STMN -0.5 (+4.5) | 134.9 (-0.9) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OMA -0.0 (+4.0) | 136.9 (-2.9) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | STMN -0.4 (+4.4) | 138.1 (-4.1) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STMN -0.4 (+4.4) | 137.1 (-3.1) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | STMN 68 – 53 OMA |
| Feb 13, 2026 | OMA 98 – 94 STMN |
| Mar 10, 2025 | OMA 85 – 75 STMN |
| Feb 16, 2025 | STMN 95 – 84 OMA |
| Jan 24, 2025 | OMA 89 – 78 STMN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OMA | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 9-7 |
| Home | 11-3 | 12-2 |
| Away | 2-13 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 65.6 |
| Massey | -2.4 (#210) | 1.4 (#146) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.10 (#277) | -0.17 (#196) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.91 (#251) | 0.21 (#161) |
| RPI | 0.429 (#303) | 0.475 (#217) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OMA | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 30.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 25.2% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 31.7% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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