Betting Lines
| Spread | STMN -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | OMA +140 STMN -165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OMA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OMA +11 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | STMN -3.6 (+14.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.9 (+9.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STMN -1.8 (+12.8) | 157.1 (+9.9) | 47% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STMN -1.9 (+12.9) | 157.6 (+9.4) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STMN -1.6 (+12.6) | 153.9 (+13.1) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | STMN -1.3 (+12.3) | 153.7 (+13.3) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | STMN 68 – 53 OMA |
| Feb 13, 2026 | OMA 98 – 94 STMN |
| Mar 10, 2025 | OMA 85 – 75 STMN |
| Feb 16, 2025 | STMN 95 – 84 OMA |
| Mar 1, 2024 | STMN 88 – 61 OMA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OMA | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 13-3 | 12-4 |
| Home | 11-2 | 14-0 |
| Away | 7-9 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 81.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 76.1 |
| Massey | -2.6 (#210) | 4.4 (#100) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.40 (#214) | 1.01 (#94) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.76 (#225) | 1.22 (#92) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#224) | 0.538 (#106) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OMA | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 49.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 39.8% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 6.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 58.7% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 20.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.7% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.