Betting Lines
| Spread | STMN -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | OMA +170 STMN -205 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OMA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OMA +4 | 192 | Won |
| Massey | STMN -6.2 (+10.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.3 (+37.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STMN -4.3 (+8.3) | 150.9 (+41.1) | 30% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STMN -4.3 (+8.3) | 150.4 (+41.6) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STMN -5.0 (+9.0) | 149.3 (+42.7) | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | STMN -4.7 (+8.7) | 151.0 (+41.0) | 30% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | STMN 68 – 53 OMA |
| Mar 10, 2025 | OMA 85 – 75 STMN |
| Feb 16, 2025 | STMN 95 – 84 OMA |
| Jan 24, 2025 | OMA 89 – 78 STMN |
| Mar 1, 2024 | STMN 88 – 61 OMA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OMA | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 12-4 |
| Home | 10-4 | 14-1 |
| Away | 5-10 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.7 | 73.1 |
| Massey | -5.5 (#254) | 3.6 (#115) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.13 (#273) | 0.59 (#108) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.35 (#264) | 0.86 (#104) |
| RPI | 0.437 (#292) | 0.533 (#103) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OMA | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 50.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 6.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 58.8% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 14.0% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 21.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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