Betting Lines
| Spread | STMN -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | STMN -333 OMA +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STMN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STMN +27 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | STMN -7.8 (+19.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.3 (+10.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STMN -6.6 (+20.4) | 143.0 (+6.0) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STMN -7.5 (+19.5) | 140.0 (+9.0) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STMN -6.0 (+21.0) | 141.4 (+7.6) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STMN -5.6 (+21.4) | 142.9 (+6.1) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | STMN 68 – 53 OMA |
| Feb 13, 2026 | OMA 98 – 94 STMN |
| Mar 10, 2025 | OMA 85 – 75 STMN |
| Feb 16, 2025 | STMN 95 – 84 OMA |
| Jan 24, 2025 | OMA 89 – 78 STMN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STMN | OMA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 7-9 |
| Home | 12-2 | 11-3 |
| Away | 6-9 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 74.7 |
| Massey | 0.3 (#161) | -4.2 (#245) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.40 (#214) | -1.20 (#293) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.21 (#182) | -1.20 (#277) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#229) | 0.428 (#313) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STMN | OMA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 29.7 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 24.0% | 24.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 30.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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