Betting Lines
| Spread | STMN -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | OMA +140 STMN -165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OMA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OMA +10 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | STMN -3.3 (+13.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.2 (+2.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STMN -1.9 (+11.9) | 151.1 (+8.9) | 42% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STMN -2.5 (+12.5) | 150.8 (+9.2) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STMN -2.4 (+12.4) | 150.6 (+9.4) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | STMN -2.7 (+12.7) | 151.6 (+8.4) | 42% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | STMN 68 – 53 OMA |
| Feb 13, 2026 | OMA 98 – 94 STMN |
| Feb 16, 2025 | STMN 95 – 84 OMA |
| Jan 24, 2025 | OMA 89 – 78 STMN |
| Mar 1, 2024 | STMN 88 – 61 OMA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OMA | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 13-3 | 12-4 |
| Home | 11-2 | 14-0 |
| Away | 7-9 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 81.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 76.1 |
| Massey | -0.0 (#161) | 3.2 (#116) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.12 (#157) | 0.58 (#123) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.09 (#170) | 0.57 (#127) |
| RPI | 0.522 (#140) | 0.546 (#86) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OMA | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 49.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 38.7% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 30.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 6.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.54 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 58.1% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 13.8% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 21.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.2% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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