Betting Lines
| Spread | TXST -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | TXST -138 USA +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXST +8 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | TXST -3.8 (+4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.8 (+0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXST -2.0 (+6.0) | 140.8 (-0.8) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXST -2.3 (+5.7) | 139.0 (+1.0) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXST -1.9 (+6.1) | 138.7 (+1.3) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TXST -2.2 (+5.8) | 140.0 (-0.0) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | TXST 90 – 82 USA |
| Dec 20, 2025 | TXST 67 – 65 USA |
| Feb 22, 2025 | TXST 93 – 92 USA |
| Feb 15, 2025 | USA 70 – 65 TXST |
| Feb 16, 2024 | USA 72 – 55 TXST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXST | USA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-18 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 8-10 |
| Home | 9-4 | 11-6 |
| Away | 5-11 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.5 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 75.9 |
| Massey | -5.0 (#262) | -5.2 (#265) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.06 (#274) | -0.59 (#235) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.96 (#252) | -0.80 (#241) |
| RPI | 0.470 (#229) | 0.466 (#237) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXST | USA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 29.2% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.7% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 24.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.4% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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