Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | USA -125 TXST +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +17 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | USA -1.8 (+15.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.0 (-10.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -0.9 (+16.1) | 138.7 (-11.7) | 54% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | USA -1.1 (+15.9) | 137.2 (-10.2) | 58% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | USA -1.3 (+15.7) | 135.5 (-8.5) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USA -0.5 (+16.5) | 136.0 (-9.0) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | TXST 90 – 82 USA |
| Dec 20, 2025 | TXST 67 – 65 USA |
| Feb 22, 2025 | TXST 93 – 92 USA |
| Feb 15, 2025 | USA 70 – 65 TXST |
| Feb 2, 2024 | TXST 74 – 66 USA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 17-18 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-6 | 9-4 |
| Away | 5-9 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.9 | 70.5 |
| Massey | -5.2 (#266) | -3.6 (#233) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#230) | -0.47 (#214) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.77 (#237) | -0.43 (#210) |
| RPI | 0.462 (#248) | 0.494 (#179) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 24.0% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 27.5% |
Game Analysis
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