Betting Lines
| Spread | TXST -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | TXST -135 USA +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXST +1 | 185 | Won |
| Massey | USA -1.2 (+2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.5 (+47.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -0.5 (+1.5) | 140.4 (+44.6) | 49% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -0.1 (+1.1) | 139.7 (+45.3) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -0.3 (+1.3) | 139.1 (+45.9) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USA -0.6 (+1.6) | 141.3 (+43.7) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | TXST 90 – 82 USA |
| Dec 20, 2025 | TXST 67 – 65 USA |
| Feb 15, 2025 | USA 70 – 65 TXST |
| Feb 16, 2024 | USA 72 – 55 TXST |
| Feb 2, 2024 | TXST 74 – 66 USA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXST | USA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 13-5 |
| Home | 10-4 | 13-4 |
| Away | 4-10 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 65.5 |
| Massey | -2.1 (#200) | 2.2 (#123) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.57 (#223) | 0.25 (#151) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.83 (#234) | 0.36 (#144) |
| RPI | 0.487 (#205) | 0.511 (#161) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXST | USA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.5% | 16.5% |
Game Analysis
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