Betting Lines
| Spread | TXST -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | TXST -175 USA +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXST +2 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | USA -1.8 (+3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.7 (-8.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -1.6 (+3.6) | 139.6 (-7.6) | 45% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -1.8 (+3.8) | 139.9 (-7.9) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -1.2 (+3.2) | 138.8 (-6.8) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USA -1.7 (+3.7) | 140.1 (-8.1) | 42% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | TXST 90 – 82 USA |
| Feb 22, 2025 | TXST 93 – 92 USA |
| Feb 15, 2025 | USA 70 – 65 TXST |
| Feb 16, 2024 | USA 72 – 55 TXST |
| Feb 2, 2024 | TXST 74 – 66 USA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXST | USA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 11-7 |
| Home | 16-1 | 10-4 |
| Away | 3-9 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 71.3 |
| Massey | -9.1 (#306) | -3.0 (#211) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.06 (#261) | 0.65 (#128) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.33 (#252) | 0.69 (#136) |
| RPI | 0.408 (#318) | 0.493 (#187) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXST | USA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 13.9% |
Game Analysis
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