Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | USA -185 TXST +154 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXST +8 | 172 | Lost |
| Massey | USA -6.7 (-14.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.0 (+32.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -5.2 (-13.2) | 140.8 (+31.2) | 67% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -5.0 (-13.0) | 142.0 (+30.0) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -4.6 (-12.6) | 140.7 (+31.3) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USA -4.9 (-12.9) | 142.7 (+29.3) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2025 | TXST 67 – 65 USA |
| Feb 22, 2025 | TXST 93 – 92 USA |
| Feb 15, 2025 | USA 70 – 65 TXST |
| Feb 16, 2024 | USA 72 – 55 TXST |
| Feb 2, 2024 | TXST 74 – 66 USA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-4 | 16-1 |
| Away | 8-7 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -2.1 (#202) | -5.9 (#262) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.46 (#123) | -0.28 (#200) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.41 (#134) | -0.57 (#212) |
| RPI | 0.531 (#111) | 0.481 (#221) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 13.3% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 34.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.4% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
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