Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | USA -290 TXST +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +5 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | USA -7.4 (-2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.9 (-3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -6.6 (-1.6) | 141.2 (-6.2) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -5.4 (-0.4) | 141.0 (-6.0) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -6.0 (-1.0) | 139.6 (-4.6) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USA -5.8 (-0.8) | 141.1 (-6.1) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | TXST 90 – 82 USA |
| Dec 20, 2025 | TXST 67 – 65 USA |
| Feb 22, 2025 | TXST 93 – 92 USA |
| Feb 16, 2024 | USA 72 – 55 TXST |
| Feb 2, 2024 | TXST 74 – 66 USA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 9-9 |
| Home | 13-4 | 10-4 |
| Away | 8-6 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.5 | 74.5 |
| Massey | 2.0 (#129) | -2.3 (#204) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.02 (#168) | -0.51 (#217) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.16 (#163) | -0.83 (#229) |
| RPI | 0.501 (#177) | 0.485 (#208) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.49 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 27.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.3% | 28.8% |
Game Analysis
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