Betting Lines
| Spread | UND -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | SDAK +138 UND -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDAK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UND +14 | 176 | Lost |
| Massey | UND -0.6 (-13.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.8 (+23.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UND -0.8 (-13.2) | 151.8 (+24.2) | 42% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UND -1.6 (-12.4) | 152.6 (+23.4) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UND -0.7 (-13.3) | 150.5 (+25.5) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UND -1.0 (-13.0) | 151.8 (+24.2) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | UND 72 – 71 SDAK |
| Jan 17, 2026 | UND 96 – 80 SDAK |
| Mar 1, 2025 | SDAK 92 – 79 UND |
| Jan 24, 2025 | SDAK 102 – 93 UND |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UND 95 – 66 SDAK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDAK | UND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 10-6 |
| Home | 8-6 | 9-5 |
| Away | 2-12 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.3 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.5 | 74.0 |
| Massey | -10.0 (#321) | -5.9 (#275) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.38 (#297) | -0.56 (#233) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.83 (#302) | -0.71 (#234) |
| RPI | 0.411 (#317) | 0.454 (#261) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDAK | UND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.6% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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