Betting Lines
| Spread | UND -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Over |
| Money | UND -135 SDAK +114 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UND +16 | 176 | Won |
| Massey | UND -0.2 (+15.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.0 (+10.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDAK -0.0 (+16.0) | 158.2 (+17.8) | 54% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDAK -0.6 (+16.6) | 158.5 (+17.5) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UND -0.3 (+15.7) | 157.3 (+18.7) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UND -0.4 (+15.6) | 156.7 (+19.3) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | UND 72 – 71 SDAK |
| Mar 1, 2025 | SDAK 92 – 79 UND |
| Jan 24, 2025 | SDAK 102 – 93 UND |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UND 95 – 66 SDAK |
| Feb 2, 2024 | UND 95 – 81 SDAK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UND | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-17 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 8-8 |
| Home | 9-7 | 12-5 |
| Away | 7-8 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 78.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.6 | 81.7 |
| Massey | -9.8 (#307) | -6.6 (#267) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.49 (#296) | -0.71 (#232) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.08 (#301) | -0.74 (#218) |
| RPI | 0.435 (#285) | 0.435 (#284) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UND | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 32.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.8% | 56.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.0% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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