Betting Lines
| Spread | UND -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 175.5 Over |
| Money | UND -175 SDAK +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDAK +9 | 195 | Lost |
| Massey | UND -1.6 (-10.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 180.0 (+15.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UND -0.9 (-9.9) | 169.1 (+25.9) | 61% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UND -2.3 (-11.3) | 167.7 (+27.3) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UND -1.4 (-10.4) | 170.8 (+24.2) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UND -0.3 (-9.3) | 169.4 (+25.6) | 56% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | UND 72 – 71 SDAK |
| Jan 17, 2026 | UND 96 – 80 SDAK |
| Mar 1, 2025 | SDAK 92 – 79 UND |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UND 95 – 66 SDAK |
| Feb 2, 2024 | UND 95 – 81 SDAK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UND | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 9-7 |
| Home | 9-6 | 14-2 |
| Away | 2-12 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.3 | 84.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.2 | 86.6 |
| Massey | -6.9 (#276) | -5.1 (#250) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.32 (#283) | -0.84 (#246) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.76 (#296) | -1.32 (#264) |
| RPI | 0.413 (#319) | 0.440 (#278) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UND | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 14.7 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 35.8% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 33.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.0% | 55.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 62.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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