Betting Lines
| Spread | UND -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | UND -350 SDAK +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UND +29 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | UND -7.7 (+21.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.6 (+7.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UND -6.7 (+22.3) | 149.4 (+11.6) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UND -6.4 (+22.6) | 149.0 (+12.0) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UND -5.5 (+23.5) | 150.0 (+11.0) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UND -6.2 (+22.8) | 151.0 (+10.0) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | UND 72 – 71 SDAK |
| Jan 17, 2026 | UND 96 – 80 SDAK |
| Mar 1, 2025 | SDAK 92 – 79 UND |
| Jan 24, 2025 | SDAK 102 – 93 UND |
| Feb 2, 2024 | UND 95 – 81 SDAK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UND | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 5-11 |
| Home | 9-5 | 8-6 |
| Away | 7-8 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 74.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.0 | 81.5 |
| Massey | -4.6 (#253) | -9.0 (#312) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.55 (#232) | -1.46 (#305) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.72 (#237) | -1.82 (#312) |
| RPI | 0.463 (#256) | 0.411 (#333) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UND | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 37.7% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 12.0% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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