Betting Lines
| Spread | SDAK -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 175.5 Under |
| Money | SDAK -185 UND +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDAK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDAK +13 | 171 | Won |
| Massey | SDAK -5.7 (+7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 177.8 (-6.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDAK -5.1 (+7.9) | 166.2 (+4.8) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDAK -3.9 (+9.1) | 167.4 (+3.6) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDAK -5.3 (+7.7) | 165.1 (+5.9) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDAK -5.1 (+7.9) | 165.2 (+5.8) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | UND 72 – 71 SDAK |
| Jan 17, 2026 | UND 96 – 80 SDAK |
| Jan 24, 2025 | SDAK 102 – 93 UND |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UND 95 – 66 SDAK |
| Feb 2, 2024 | UND 95 – 81 SDAK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDAK | UND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 5-11 |
| Home | 14-2 | 9-6 |
| Away | 4-11 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.4 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 86.6 | 82.2 |
| Massey | -3.9 (#230) | -6.4 (#271) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.50 (#214) | -1.39 (#298) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.88 (#237) | -1.81 (#298) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#238) | 0.431 (#309) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDAK | UND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 12.8% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 34.4% |
| FT Rate | 32.1% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.6% | 57.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 63.1% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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