Betting Lines
| Spread | FGCU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | CARK +175 FGCU -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FGCU +23 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | FGCU -3.5 (-19.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.2 (-5.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FGCU -3.5 (-19.5) | 145.5 (-4.5) | 39% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FGCU -4.5 (-18.5) | 143.0 (-2.0) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FGCU -2.9 (-20.1) | 146.4 (-5.4) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FGCU -2.9 (-20.1) | 147.2 (-6.2) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | CARK 73 – 63 FGCU |
| Feb 21, 2026 | FGCU 75 – 71 CARK |
| Jan 1, 2026 | CARK 85 – 83 FGCU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | FGCU 77 – 71 CARK |
| Feb 3, 2023 | CARK 91 – 87 FGCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CARK | FGCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 8-8 |
| Home | 5-10 | 9-5 |
| Away | 4-13 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.3 | 71.6 |
| Massey | -12.9 (#339) | -5.8 (#274) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.74 (#324) | -0.99 (#267) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.13 (#321) | -1.25 (#277) |
| RPI | 0.395 (#335) | 0.438 (#287) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CARK | FGCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.9% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 66.2% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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