Betting Lines
| Spread | FGCU -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | FGCU -800 CARK +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FGCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CARK +4 | 178 | Lost |
| Massey | FGCU -15.3 (-19.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.7 (+27.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FGCU -10.9 (-14.9) | 149.7 (+28.3) | 84% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FGCU -11.4 (-15.4) | 149.6 (+28.4) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FGCU -11.1 (-15.1) | 147.8 (+30.2) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FGCU -11.1 (-15.1) | 149.0 (+29.0) | 84% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | CARK 73 – 63 FGCU |
| Feb 21, 2026 | FGCU 75 – 71 CARK |
| Jan 1, 2026 | CARK 85 – 83 FGCU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | FGCU 77 – 71 CARK |
| Feb 2, 2024 | FGCU 82 – 59 CARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FGCU | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 4-14 |
| Home | 8-5 | 6-8 |
| Away | 6-9 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 82.4 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#160) | -11.2 (#341) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.58 (#122) | -1.39 (#298) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.78 (#118) | -2.12 (#322) |
| RPI | 0.545 (#91) | 0.436 (#296) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FGCU | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 40.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 54.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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