Betting Lines
| Spread | FGCU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | CARK +120 FGCU -142 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CARK +2 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | CARK -3.9 (-1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.7 (+8.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CARK -1.4 (+0.6) | 155.3 (+12.7) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CARK -0.5 (+1.5) | 154.6 (+13.4) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CARK -2.3 (-0.3) | 150.4 (+17.6) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CARK -1.5 (+0.5) | 151.8 (+16.2) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | CARK 73 – 63 FGCU |
| Feb 21, 2026 | FGCU 75 – 71 CARK |
| Jan 11, 2025 | FGCU 77 – 71 CARK |
| Feb 2, 2024 | FGCU 82 – 59 CARK |
| Feb 3, 2023 | CARK 91 – 87 FGCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CARK | FGCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 8-10 |
| Home | 14-1 | 11-6 |
| Away | 6-10 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.3 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.0 | 78.0 |
| Massey | -2.6 (#205) | -2.6 (#204) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.55 (#294) | -0.70 (#241) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.00 (#286) | -0.31 (#181) |
| RPI | 0.449 (#271) | 0.469 (#235) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CARK | FGCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 18.0% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 34.1% |
Game Analysis
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