Betting Lines
| Spread | FGCU -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | FGCU -1600 CARK +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FGCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FGCU +6 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | FGCU -17.2 (-11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.6 (+6.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FGCU -12.1 (-6.1) | 144.3 (+3.7) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FGCU -12.3 (-6.3) | 144.7 (+3.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FGCU -11.8 (-5.8) | 143.2 (+4.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FGCU -12.2 (-6.2) | 144.1 (+3.9) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | CARK 73 – 63 FGCU |
| Feb 21, 2026 | FGCU 75 – 71 CARK |
| Jan 1, 2026 | CARK 85 – 83 FGCU |
| Feb 2, 2024 | FGCU 82 – 59 CARK |
| Feb 3, 2023 | CARK 91 – 87 FGCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FGCU | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 9-24 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 4-14 |
| Home | 11-5 | 7-7 |
| Away | 7-9 | 1-16 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 79.4 |
| Massey | 0.9 (#150) | -12.4 (#345) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.02 (#170) | -2.77 (#347) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.12 (#176) | -3.33 (#345) |
| RPI | 0.516 (#142) | 0.359 (#355) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FGCU | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 37.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 27.3% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 44.4% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 14.6% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 55.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 17.7% |
Game Analysis
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