Betting Lines
| Spread | CARK -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | CARK -205 FGCU +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CARK +10 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | CARK -5.2 (+4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.8 (-16.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CARK -3.8 (+6.2) | 145.9 (-9.9) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CARK -2.9 (+7.1) | 147.6 (-11.6) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CARK -4.0 (+6.0) | 145.1 (-9.1) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CARK -3.9 (+6.1) | 145.2 (-9.2) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | FGCU 75 – 71 CARK |
| Jan 1, 2026 | CARK 85 – 83 FGCU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | FGCU 77 – 71 CARK |
| Feb 2, 2024 | FGCU 82 – 59 CARK |
| Feb 3, 2023 | CARK 91 – 87 FGCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CARK | FGCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 8-10 |
| Home | 14-1 | 11-6 |
| Away | 6-10 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.3 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.0 | 78.0 |
| Massey | 0.2 (#158) | -5.0 (#245) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.06 (#157) | -1.00 (#254) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.04 (#167) | -1.09 (#247) |
| RPI | 0.540 (#93) | 0.466 (#255) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CARK | FGCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.49 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.2% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 28.6% |
Game Analysis
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