Betting Lines
| Spread | CARK -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | FGCU -108 CARK -112 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FGCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FGCU +4 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | CARK -2.2 (+6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.5 (-10.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CARK -0.6 (+4.6) | 151.1 (-5.1) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CARK -2.2 (+6.2) | 150.7 (-4.7) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CARK -1.8 (+5.8) | 153.5 (-7.5) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CARK -2.4 (+6.4) | 153.2 (-7.2) | 42% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | CARK 73 – 63 FGCU |
| Jan 1, 2026 | CARK 85 – 83 FGCU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | FGCU 77 – 71 CARK |
| Feb 2, 2024 | FGCU 82 – 59 CARK |
| Feb 3, 2023 | CARK 91 – 87 FGCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FGCU | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 15-3 |
| Home | 11-6 | 14-1 |
| Away | 3-11 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 79.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.0 | 76.0 |
| Massey | -5.2 (#248) | -0.1 (#162) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.12 (#270) | -0.10 (#174) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.17 (#251) | -0.26 (#181) |
| RPI | 0.449 (#276) | 0.525 (#124) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FGCU | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 55.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.0% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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