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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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40–15 on winners spread MAE 9.0 55 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Oregon State @ USC	+8.1	147.5	77%	54–82	✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Mississippi Valley State	-11.2	152.9	15%	83–77	✓
Presbyterian @ High Point	+15.0	157.7	91%	68–78	✓
Campbell @ UNC Wilmington	+16.5	137.4	93%	74–77	✓
San Diego @ Santa Clara	+12.7	154.8	88%	70–59	✗
Saint Francis @ Long Island University	+3.1	137.7	61%	67–70	✓
Pennsylvania @ Yale	+11.2	144.4	85%	58–74	✓
Cornell @ Harvard	-4.2	156.5	35%	89–76	✓
UMBC @ UAlbany	+10.2	174.8	82%	114–102	✗
UC San Diego @ Long Beach State	-2.5	152.9	41%	76–85	✗
Sacramento State @ Portland State	+8.4	136.7	78%	51–58	✓
Syracuse @ Wake Forest	+8.2	150.9	77%	70–99	✓
Iowa State @ Baylor	+1.5	152.8	55%	68–70	✓
Florida State @ Louisville	-7.0	149.9	26%	92–101	✗
Wyoming @ UNLV	+9.0	150.2	79%	48–62	✓
Pepperdine @ Portland	-2.1	150.6	42%	89–93	✗
South Alabama @ Louisiana	+11.9	151.4	86%	60–80	✓
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ Kansas City	-2.9	134.7	39%	71–56	✓
Denver @ Oral Roberts	+2.7	171.8	60%	76–82	✓
Seattle U @ California Baptist	+0.6	134.4	52%	61–60	✗
Middle Tennessee @ Western Kentucky	+10.8	137.9	84%	65–88	✓
UC Riverside @ Cal State Northridge	+5.0	145.5	68%	70–76	✓
Weber State @ Northern Colorado	-0.1	158.6	49%	82–63	✓
Idaho @ Montana State	+10.0	140.6	82%	81–75	✗
Tennessee @ Kentucky	-1.5	161.0	44%	103–92	✓
Mississippi State @ Alabama	+12.0	157.1	86%	67–99	✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ North Alabama	+4.2	146.9	65%	69–70	✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Southern Utah	+10.8	161.5	84%	59–79	✓
Washington State @ Washington	+1.5	152.6	56%	90–87	✗
Jacksonville State @ New Mexico State	-1.5	130.3	45%	65–67	✗
Liberty @ UTEP	-3.1	137.4	39%	67–65	✓
Eastern Washington @ Montana	+2.5	152.5	59%	78–65	✗
Xavier @ DePaul	-15.8	146.0	8%	93–68	✓
Colorado State @ Fresno State	-11.1	144.3	16%	73–61	✓
Pacific @ San Francisco	+29.6	140.9	100%	73–79	✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Cal State Bakersfield	-2.0	140.9	43%	70–59	✓
Hawai'i @ UC Irvine	+12.2	133.6	87%	68–93	✓
Oregon @ UCLA	-2.2	133.4	42%	63–71	✗
Saint Mary's @ Gonzaga	+3.1	137.1	61%	64–62	✗
Purdue @ Wisconsin	-2.8	151.2	40%	75–69	✓
Davidson @ Loyola Chicago	+3.7	134.2	63%	63–76	✓
Rider @ Iona	+8.0	144.9	77%	93–94	✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Siena	-10.5	137.1	17%	68–61	✓
Saint Peter's @ Marist	+1.3	114.2	55%	52–63	✓
Manhattan @ Fairfield	+14.1	147.7	90%	68–77	✓
Canisius @ Quinnipiac	+6.8	151.2	73%	63–88	✓
UNC Greensboro @ Furman	+3.1	151.1	61%	89–87	✗
Youngstown State @ Purdue Fort Wayne	-1.2	151.2	46%	78–82	✗
Wright State @ Northern Kentucky	+1.0	166.5	54%	85–78	✗
IU Indianapolis @ Milwaukee	+16.5	153.4	93%	67–87	✓
Temple @ Tulane	+12.7	162.4	88%	80–92	✓
South Dakota @ South Dakota State	+15.2	158.1	92%	67–70	✓
UAB @ SMU	+13.6	149.1	89%	69–72	✓
Providence @ Villanova	+4.4	136.8	65%	50–68	✓
Nebraska @ Illinois	+10.8	157.4	84%	84–87	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.