And the only safe place to live is on an Indian reservation. "Ball of Confusion" - The Temptations
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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87–37 on winners spread MAE 8.7 124 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Saint Louis @ VCU +11.1 146.5 84% 61–85 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Siena -11.3 141.8 15% 82–70 ✓
Niagara @ Rider +3.3 156.1 62% 78–74 ✗
Marist @ Mount St. Mary's +2.4 134.9 58% 48–65 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Fairfield +3.3 131.2 62% 67–76 ✓
Canisius @ Iona +5.4 143.6 69% 58–70 ✓
Le Moyne @ Central Connecticut +10.2 142.1 82% 75–73 ✗
Wagner @ Merrimack +9.5 118.7 81% 71–65 ✗
Long Island University @ Saint Francis +4.3 137.5 65% 66–72 ✓
Toledo @ Central Michigan -6.6 150.7 27% 62–65 ✗
Akron @ Kent State -2.6 144.7 41% 77–71 ✓
Indiana @ Wisconsin +15.2 144.6 92% 79–91 ✓
UNLV @ Colorado State +9.3 148.0 80% 75–78 ✓
Baylor @ Texas -3.9 150.4 36% 73–75 ✗
Marquette @ St. John's +1.3 150.0 55% 73–72 ✗
Creighton @ Seton Hall -3.3 139.4 38% 97–94 ✓
Miami @ Syracuse +1.8 155.1 56% 69–72 ✓
Virginia Tech @ NC State +2.7 144.3 60% 84–78 ✗
Louisville @ Wake Forest +18.2 155.7 95% 65–90 ✓
Penn State @ Ohio State +10.3 150.1 83% 67–79 ✓
George Washington @ Massachusetts +10.4 168.0 83% 67–81 ✓
Robert Morris @ IU Indianapolis -7.1 149.1 26% 80–63 ✓
Rhode Island @ Dayton +16.0 143.0 93% 62–96 ✓
Oklahoma @ Cincinnati +3.9 143.2 64% 69–65 ✗
Winthrop @ Gardner-Webb -0.3 149.3 49% 74–79 ✗
San Diego State @ Boise State +0.3 137.7 51% 66–67 ✓
South Carolina @ Arkansas +0.5 143.2 52% 77–64 ✗
Loyola Chicago @ Fordham -0.7 143.2 47% 65–61 ✓
The Citadel @ VMI -10.7 143.7 17% 63–70 ✗
New Hampshire @ UMBC -5.2 170.0 32% 64–58 ✓
Denver @ North Dakota -6.7 161.0 27% 78–92 ✗
Kansas City @ Omaha +7.5 146.5 75% 74–72 ✗
Army @ Navy +7.9 121.3 76% 53–57 ✓
UCF @ Houston +20.7 123.8 97% 42–57 ✓
Alabama @ Tennessee +1.0 161.4 54% 71–91 ✓
Iowa State @ TCU -3.1 151.5 39% 73–72 ✓
Rice @ Temple +5.0 146.8 67% 69–66 ✗
Illinois State @ Missouri State +8.5 129.0 78% 69–60 ✗
Belmont @ Bradley +11.3 152.7 85% 72–95 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Radford +9.8 142.1 81% 61–64 ✓
William & Mary @ North Carolina A&T +2.1 156.9 58% 69–76 ✓
Hampton @ Monmouth +18.3 148.5 95% 77–85 ✓
Delaware @ Drexel +5.7 133.9 70% 67–86 ✓
Boston University @ Colgate +10.4 127.9 83% 59–75 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ George Mason +1.2 134.4 55% 60–69 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Holy Cross +0.6 136.4 52% 78–86 ✓
Bucknell @ Lafayette +1.9 126.9 57% 72–75 ✓
Western Michigan @ Bowling Green +7.9 149.6 76% 79–84 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Ball State +2.3 141.9 58% 87–80 ✗
Western Carolina @ Furman +1.2 154.0 54% 62–65 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Cleveland State +1.8 158.7 56% 68–75 ✓
Yale @ Dartmouth -11.6 129.9 14% 76–51 ✓
Princeton @ Columbia -10.5 150.6 17% 70–62 ✓
Maine @ NJIT -4.3 131.9 35% 70–64 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Binghamton -7.2 150.7 26% 80–60 ✓
South Dakota State @ South Dakota -5.7 158.0 30% 73–55 ✓
Oral Roberts @ North Dakota State +1.6 161.4 56% 67–72 ✓
Cornell @ Brown -6.9 157.8 27% 84–83 ✓
Purdue @ Iowa -7.2 168.5 26% 84–70 ✓
North Carolina @ Boston College -7.4 158.2 25% 76–66 ✓
USC @ Arizona State +0.3 144.3 51% 67–82 ✓
Northwestern @ Nebraska +4.7 144.9 67% 69–75 ✓
Duquesne @ Saint Joseph's +7.4 144.2 75% 69–71 ✓
East Carolina @ UAB +4.4 146.1 66% 61–69 ✓
Tulsa @ SMU +15.6 138.1 92% 70–103 ✓
Presbyterian @ Longwood +12.7 139.6 88% 70–80 ✓
Georgia State @ Georgia Southern -6.5 151.3 28% 70–86 ✗
Kennesaw State @ Jacksonville -3.6 165.2 37% 83–79 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Mississippi State +17.9 134.4 95% 55–68 ✓
Troy @ Southern Miss -2.7 147.8 40% 63–64 ✗
Kansas @ West Virginia -10.9 144.8 16% 85–91 ✗
UCLA @ Arizona +25.6 141.9 99% 71–77 ✓
Fresno State @ Utah State +20.2 147.4 97% 62–83 ✓
North Carolina Central @ South Carolina State -3.7 148.2 37% 68–71 ✗
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Delaware State +10.9 140.0 84% 63–67 ✓
Southern @ Grambling -4.9 135.0 33% 62–79 ✗
Clemson @ Florida State -1.1 153.4 46% 78–67 ✓
Texas Southern @ Alcorn State +1.5 142.3 56% 72–61 ✗
North Texas @ Charlotte -1.1 119.6 46% 44–56 ✗
UIC @ Valparaiso -2.5 130.1 41% 77–84 ✗
Campbell @ Towson +9.4 120.7 80% 43–77 ✓
DePaul @ Butler +21.6 151.3 98% 60–74 ✓
Florida A&M @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff +4.9 161.4 67% 97–99 ✓
Texas A&M @ LSU -1.3 147.1 45% 73–69 ✓
Richmond @ Davidson -1.0 132.4 47% 69–64 ✓
New Mexico @ Air Force -12.8 141.6 12% 85–66 ✓
Norfolk State @ Howard +1.7 147.5 56% 65–61 ✗
Eastern Michigan @ Ohio +13.7 148.2 89% 67–85 ✓
Wofford @ UNC Greensboro +6.9 150.7 73% 59–82 ✓
Youngstown State @ Detroit Mercy -12.8 141.7 12% 105–64 ✓
Louisiana @ South Alabama -2.4 149.5 41% 88–79 ✓
UT Arlington @ Abilene Christian +0.5 154.7 52% 67–78 ✓
Utah Tech @ Utah Valley +7.6 138.0 76% 71–84 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ UC Santa Barbara +8.3 138.9 77% 73–69 ✗
Sacramento State @ Northern Arizona +0.5 135.3 52% 61–70 ✓
Morgan State @ Coppin State +2.4 133.4 59% 89–86 ✗
Tennessee State @ Western Illinois +3.6 138.1 63% 58–57 ✗
Morehead State @ Southern Indiana -10.3 133.0 17% 81–70 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Lindenwood -1.8 134.6 44% 78–68 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ App State +19.3 140.8 96% 59–88 ✓
East Texas A&M @ SE Louisiana +6.7 129.4 73% 68–52 ✗
Nicholls @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +4.3 146.6 65% 59–69 ✓
Lamar @ Houston Christian -6.0 158.3 29% 77–78 ✗
SIU Edwardsville @ Southeast Missouri State -8.2 140.0 23% 47–52 ✗
Washington State @ California -4.5 147.1 34% 75–81 ✗
American University @ Lehigh +2.8 148.9 60% 68–70 ✓
North Alabama @ Lipscomb +9.7 159.7 81% 79–88 ✓
Queens University @ North Florida +6.6 157.7 72% 75–91 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Jacksonville State -1.3 124.1 45% 74–57 ✓
UC Irvine @ UC Davis -3.3 139.2 38% 52–54 ✗
Arkansas State @ Texas State -0.2 142.2 49% 79–72 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Austin Peay +11.8 139.4 86% 71–94 ✓
Northwestern State @ New Orleans +10.2 154.5 82% 92–67 ✗
Georgia @ Kentucky +12.5 163.3 87% 96–105 ✓
BYU @ Texas Tech -5.9 145.3 30% 78–85 ✗
Virginia @ Georgia Tech -1.3 126.1 45% 75–66 ✓
Evansville @ Drake +15.1 150.9 92% 48–97 ✓
Charleston @ UNC Wilmington +4.5 158.3 66% 69–78 ✓
Mercer @ Samford +16.0 155.9 93% 80–87 ✓
Harvard @ Pennsylvania +6.2 147.4 71% 70–61 ✗
Marshall @ James Madison +17.5 161.0 94% 52–67 ✓
McNeese @ Incarnate Word -14.1 145.5 10% 80–66 ✓
Green Bay @ Northern Kentucky +2.6 137.7 59% 52–74 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Jackson State +8.6 147.5 78% 71–62 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.