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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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42–16 on winners spread MAE 9.5 58 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
South Florida @ Memphis	+12.5	156.6	87%	74–73	✗
Wichita State @ Florida Atlantic	+17.7	154.5	95%	77–86	✓
UNC Asheville @ Winthrop	+6.6	152.0	73%	82–77	✗
Towson @ Charleston	+8.2	138.4	77%	82–78	✗
Stony Brook @ Delaware	+10.6	145.8	83%	68–71	✓
UNC Wilmington @ Elon	-6.9	155.9	27%	82–70	✓
Northeastern @ North Carolina A&T	-6.2	155.3	29%	65–72	✗
Monmouth @ Drexel	+9.4	129.8	80%	74–78	✓
Hampton @ Hofstra	+23.0	147.2	98%	77–86	✓
Campbell @ William & Mary	+3.6	137.1	63%	77–64	✗
Milwaukee @ Northern Kentucky	+5.0	158.9	68%	72–90	✓
Green Bay @ Wright State	+6.8	153.8	73%	88–81	✗
Marshall @ Old Dominion	+0.6	151.3	52%	66–91	✓
Coastal Carolina @ Georgia Southern	+1.0	151.8	54%	70–73	✓
New Hampshire @ NJIT	-7.4	151.5	25%	70–62	✓
Maine @ UMBC	-3.0	154.1	39%	65–70	✗
UMass Lowell @ UAlbany	+0.0	153.9	50%	97–76	✗
Queens University @ Jacksonville	+1.8	160.0	56%	77–79	✓
Kennesaw State @ North Florida	+0.2	163.9	51%	75–84	✓
Florida International @ Liberty	+14.6	146.0	91%	69–78	✓
UT Martin @ Morehead State	+11.3	155.3	85%	66–84	✓
Seattle U @ Stephen F. Austin	+2.4	141.6	59%	84–89	✓
Troy @ South Alabama	-2.4	155.6	41%	71–74	✗
UL Monroe @ James Madison	+25.2	146.7	99%	70–89	✓
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ South Dakota	-9.1	139.4	20%	73–74	✗
Oral Roberts @ North Dakota	-2.8	151.5	40%	77–87	✗
Omaha @ South Dakota State	+7.8	149.0	76%	87–90	✓
Denver @ North Dakota State	-3.3	172.9	38%	78–70	✓
Central Arkansas @ Lipscomb	+19.7	152.2	96%	96–86	✗
North Alabama @ Austin Peay	+5.3	141.2	69%	80–83	✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ UT Arlington	+11.9	160.0	86%	73–91	✓
Abilene Christian @ Tarleton State	+6.6	140.9	73%	71–79	✓
Sacramento State @ Northern Colorado	+10.2	157.3	82%	75–77	✓
Portland State @ Northern Arizona	-6.2	138.8	29%	65–84	✗
Illinois @ Michigan	-5.3	158.2	31%	88–73	✓
Tennessee Tech @ Tennessee State	+8.2	142.6	77%	53–85	✓
Little Rock @ Southern Indiana	-1.6	152.2	44%	77–75	✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Lindenwood	-3.9	133.5	36%	78–59	✓
Utah Tech @ Southern Utah	+4.6	159.1	66%	65–75	✓
Oregon State @ Utah	+19.3	151.4	96%	47–74	✓
Washington @ California	-3.9	162.6	36%	77–75	✓
Utah Valley @ Grand Canyon	+14.8	136.9	91%	65–78	✓
Middle Tennessee @ UTEP	+8.1	120.5	77%	59–73	✓
Western Kentucky @ New Mexico State	-3.9	146.7	36%	70–72	✗
Idaho @ Idaho State	+5.1	135.4	68%	59–64	✓
Eastern Washington @ Weber State	+5.8	146.9	70%	80–78	✗
Santa Clara @ Pacific	-15.5	147.3	8%	88–69	✓
Gonzaga @ Pepperdine	-9.4	150.4	20%	86–61	✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Cal State Northridge	+6.1	154.4	71%	97–69	✗
Hawai'i @ Long Beach State	+3.6	148.2	63%	71–79	✓
UC Riverside @ Cal State Bakersfield	+0.8	136.1	53%	56–80	✓
UC Davis @ Cal State Fullerton	-2.2	133.5	42%	67–65	✓
UC San Diego @ UC Irvine	+7.3	139.2	75%	65–76	✓
Oregon @ Colorado	+5.7	153.2	70%	70–86	✓
Washington State @ Stanford	-0.5	147.6	48%	89–75	✓
Loyola Marymount @ San Francisco	+14.6	135.8	91%	74–90	✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Stonehill	-0.2	153.1	49%	76–69	✓
Georgetown @ Xavier	+17.0	147.5	94%	91–92	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.