Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | SFA -225 SEA +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +5 | 173 | Won |
| Massey | SFA -3.1 (+1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.7 (+31.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -1.7 (+3.3) | 139.1 (+33.9) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -2.7 (+2.3) | 139.0 (+34.0) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -2.7 (+2.3) | 140.6 (+32.4) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -2.4 (+2.6) | 142.4 (+30.6) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 23, 2024 | SEA 69 – 49 SFA |
| Jan 28, 2023 | SFA 79 – 65 SEA |
| Jan 27, 2022 | SEA 70 – 62 SFA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFA | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 23-14 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 11-9 |
| Home | 10-5 | 14-4 |
| Away | 5-8 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | W4 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 67.4 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#134) | 2.9 (#126) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.21 (#159) | -0.07 (#181) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.48 (#143) | 0.46 (#144) |
| RPI | 0.494 (#185) | 0.482 (#206) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFA | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 23.2% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 35.5% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 28.4% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 46.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.8% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 37.0% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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