Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | SFA -175 SEA +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +14 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | SFA -1.6 (+12.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.7 (+3.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -1.2 (+12.8) | 141.5 (+2.5) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -0.7 (+13.3) | 140.5 (+3.5) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -0.9 (+13.1) | 140.7 (+3.3) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -0.7 (+13.3) | 143.5 (+0.5) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 23, 2024 | SEA 69 – 49 SFA |
| Jan 19, 2024 | SFA 89 – 84 SEA |
| Jan 27, 2022 | SEA 70 – 62 SFA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFA | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 11-7 |
| Home | 12-4 | 12-2 |
| Away | 6-5 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 70.0 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#130) | 4.2 (#111) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.52 (#126) | 1.39 (#67) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.49 (#134) | 1.46 (#77) |
| RPI | 0.523 (#140) | 0.569 (#65) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFA | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 38.4% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 21.9% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 28.7% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.8% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 66.6% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.6% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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