Betting Lines
| Spread | UCD -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | CSUF +100 UCD -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCD +2 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | UCD -2.3 (+0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.5 (-1.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCD -1.8 (-0.2) | 134.0 (-2.0) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCD -2.0 (+0.0) | 134.6 (-2.6) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCD -2.3 (+0.3) | 136.0 (-4.0) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCD -2.2 (+0.2) | 135.1 (-3.1) | 36% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | CSUF 82 – 70 UCD |
| Feb 20, 2026 | CSUF 93 – 92 UCD |
| Jan 16, 2026 | UCD 74 – 69 CSUF |
| Feb 9, 2025 | UCD 65 – 49 CSUF |
| Jan 10, 2025 | UCD 63 – 53 CSUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUF | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 14-6 |
| Home | 7-7 | 10-6 |
| Away | 6-10 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.4 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 69.0 |
| Massey | -4.6 (#253) | 1.5 (#146) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.15 (#165) | -0.27 (#206) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.23 (#200) | -0.17 (#192) |
| RPI | 0.524 (#134) | 0.473 (#223) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUF | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.60 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.5% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 28.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 30.7% |
Game Analysis
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