Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | PEPP +550 GONZ -1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PEPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +25 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | GONZ -10.0 (-15.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.0 (-4.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -10.0 (-15.0) | 150.0 (-3.0) | 20% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -9.5 (-15.5) | 147.9 (-0.9) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -9.7 (-15.3) | 148.8 (-1.8) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -8.9 (-16.1) | 150.9 (-3.9) | 21% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | GONZ 84 – 60 PEPP |
| Dec 29, 2025 | GONZ 96 – 56 PEPP |
| Feb 16, 2025 | GONZ 107 – 55 PEPP |
| Dec 31, 2024 | GONZ 89 – 82 PEPP |
| Jan 5, 2024 | GONZ 86 – 60 PEPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PEPP | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 14-2 |
| Home | 9-8 | 13-2 |
| Away | 3-8 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 83.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 69.5 |
| Massey | -1.9 (#204) | 11.9 (#35) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#233) | 1.53 (#66) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.62 (#226) | 2.26 (#53) |
| RPI | 0.458 (#245) | 0.551 (#96) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PEPP | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 48.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 40.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 35.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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