Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -28.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | GONZ -50000 PEPP +4000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GONZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +24 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | GONZ -35.9 (-11.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.5 (-2.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -31.1 (-7.1) | 146.6 (-2.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -25.0 (-1.0) | 148.0 (-4.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -22.7 (+1.3) | 143.6 (+0.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -30.1 (-6.1) | 142.7 (+1.3) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 29, 2025 | GONZ 96 – 56 PEPP |
| Feb 16, 2025 | GONZ 107 – 55 PEPP |
| Dec 31, 2024 | GONZ 89 – 82 PEPP |
| Jan 19, 2024 | GONZ 86 – 61 PEPP |
| Jan 5, 2024 | GONZ 86 – 60 PEPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GONZ | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-4 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 4-14 |
| Home | 15-0 | 7-10 |
| Away | 8-2 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.3 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 79.7 |
| Massey | 25.5 (#3) | -7.1 (#270) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.28 (#6) | -1.31 (#283) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.47 (#7) | -1.45 (#266) |
| RPI | 0.630 (#22) | 0.431 (#294) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GONZ | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.2% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 28.4% |
| REB / G | 43.0 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.82 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.7% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 37.3% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.6% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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