Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -20.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Over |
| Money | PEPP +1800 GONZ -6000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PEPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +7 | 171 | Lost |
| Massey | GONZ -19.7 (+12.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.9 (+13.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -13.8 (+6.8) | 155.2 (+15.8) | 16% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -12.8 (+5.8) | 154.2 (+16.8) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -10.4 (+3.4) | 154.6 (+16.4) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -12.9 (+5.9) | 156.5 (+14.5) | 16% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | GONZ 84 – 60 PEPP |
| Dec 29, 2025 | GONZ 96 – 56 PEPP |
| Feb 16, 2025 | GONZ 107 – 55 PEPP |
| Jan 19, 2024 | GONZ 86 – 61 PEPP |
| Jan 5, 2024 | GONZ 86 – 60 PEPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PEPP | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-22 | 26-9 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 14-4 |
| Home | 7-9 | 13-2 |
| Away | 2-11 | 7-2 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 6-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 86.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.2 | 69.9 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#192) | 22.3 (#5) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.06 (#268) | 2.44 (#36) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.21 (#252) | 3.76 (#25) |
| RPI | 0.451 (#265) | 0.646 (#10) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PEPP | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 49.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 40.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 55.5% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 75.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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