Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -21.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | GONZ -4500 PEPP +1550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GONZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +26 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | GONZ -17.7 (+8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.6 (-0.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -17.4 (+8.6) | 145.2 (+0.8) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -14.7 (+11.3) | 143.5 (+2.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -15.7 (+10.3) | 144.0 (+2.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -15.6 (+10.4) | 144.4 (+1.6) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | GONZ 84 – 60 PEPP |
| Dec 29, 2025 | GONZ 96 – 56 PEPP |
| Feb 16, 2025 | GONZ 107 – 55 PEPP |
| Dec 31, 2024 | GONZ 89 – 82 PEPP |
| Jan 19, 2024 | GONZ 86 – 61 PEPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GONZ | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 5-11 |
| Home | 13-2 | 9-8 |
| Away | 8-2 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.4 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 10.9 (#45) | -2.3 (#214) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.69 (#54) | -1.48 (#293) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.43 (#49) | -1.73 (#288) |
| RPI | 0.554 (#93) | 0.418 (#306) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GONZ | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 41.2 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 36.9% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.9% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 27.6% |
Game Analysis
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