Betting Lines
| Spread | STMN -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | SDAK +230 STMN -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDAK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDAK +1 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | STMN -9.2 (+10.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.3 (+6.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STMN -8.9 (+9.9) | 137.9 (+9.1) | 20% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STMN -8.0 (+9.0) | 139.2 (+7.8) | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STMN -8.5 (+9.5) | 139.5 (+7.5) | 20% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | STMN -8.1 (+9.1) | 142.0 (+5.0) | 20% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | STMN 90 – 78 SDAK |
| Jan 8, 2026 | STMN 99 – 86 SDAK |
| Feb 20, 2025 | SDAK 85 – 80 STMN |
| Jan 12, 2025 | STMN 119 – 104 SDAK |
| Feb 18, 2024 | STMN 83 – 80 SDAK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDAK | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 9-7 |
| Home | 8-6 | 12-2 |
| Away | 2-12 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.3 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.5 | 65.6 |
| Massey | -9.8 (#317) | 3.1 (#121) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.43 (#299) | 0.20 (#160) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.82 (#303) | 0.60 (#136) |
| RPI | 0.407 (#319) | 0.491 (#191) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDAK | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.8% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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