Betting Lines
| Spread | STMN -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Over |
| Money | SDAK +455 STMN -625 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDAK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STMN +12 | 168 | Lost |
| Massey | STMN -7.0 (-5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.8 (+2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STMN -6.3 (-5.7) | 156.5 (+11.5) | 28% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STMN -5.7 (-6.3) | 153.4 (+14.6) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STMN -5.9 (-6.1) | 155.6 (+12.4) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STMN -5.9 (-6.1) | 156.1 (+11.9) | 27% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 8, 2026 | STMN 99 – 86 SDAK |
| Feb 20, 2025 | SDAK 85 – 80 STMN |
| Jan 12, 2025 | STMN 119 – 104 SDAK |
| Feb 18, 2024 | STMN 83 – 80 SDAK |
| Jan 19, 2024 | SDAK 74 – 73 STMN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDAK | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 12-4 |
| Home | 12-5 | 14-1 |
| Away | 3-10 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.0 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.7 | 73.1 |
| Massey | -7.3 (#276) | 2.9 (#121) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.83 (#243) | 0.70 (#106) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.01 (#236) | 0.75 (#115) |
| RPI | 0.433 (#295) | 0.536 (#104) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDAK | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 50.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 30.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 6.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 58.0% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 20.6% |
| FT Rate | 33.1% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.4% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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