Betting Lines
| Spread | STMN -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 167.5 Over |
| Money | STMN -500 SDAK +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STMN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STMN +15 | 223 | Won |
| Massey | STMN -12.1 (+2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 176.3 (+46.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STMN -12.8 (+2.2) | 169.2 (+53.8) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STMN -12.5 (+2.5) | 167.9 (+55.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STMN -11.5 (+3.5) | 168.9 (+54.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STMN -10.6 (+4.4) | 169.9 (+53.1) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | STMN 90 – 78 SDAK |
| Jan 8, 2026 | STMN 99 – 86 SDAK |
| Feb 20, 2025 | SDAK 85 – 80 STMN |
| Feb 18, 2024 | STMN 83 – 80 SDAK |
| Jan 19, 2024 | SDAK 74 – 73 STMN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STMN | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-10 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 12-4 | 9-7 |
| Home | 14-0 | 14-2 |
| Away | 7-8 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.6 | 84.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 86.6 |
| Massey | 4.8 (#98) | -3.4 (#225) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.00 (#90) | -0.78 (#239) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.22 (#94) | -1.31 (#264) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#106) | 0.452 (#256) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STMN | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.9% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 38.9% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 30.7 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 6.4 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.2% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 13.7% |
| ORB% | 19.8% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 32.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 61.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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