Betting Lines
| Spread | STMN -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Over |
| Money | STMN -1350 SDAK +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STMN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STMN +13 | 185 | Won |
| Massey | STMN -14.2 (-1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.3 (+20.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STMN -13.4 (-0.4) | 157.9 (+27.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STMN -11.2 (+1.8) | 160.8 (+24.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STMN -12.5 (+0.5) | 157.0 (+28.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STMN -12.7 (+0.3) | 155.9 (+29.1) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | STMN 90 – 78 SDAK |
| Feb 20, 2025 | SDAK 85 – 80 STMN |
| Jan 12, 2025 | STMN 119 – 104 SDAK |
| Feb 18, 2024 | STMN 83 – 80 SDAK |
| Jan 19, 2024 | SDAK 74 – 73 STMN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STMN | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-10 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 12-4 | 8-8 |
| Home | 14-1 | 12-5 |
| Away | 8-7 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 78.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.1 | 81.7 |
| Massey | 2.7 (#126) | -7.7 (#286) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#111) | -0.92 (#247) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.75 (#127) | -1.00 (#230) |
| RPI | 0.532 (#113) | 0.427 (#292) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STMN | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.1% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 29.8 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 6.5 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.66 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.6% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 13.8% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 20.3% | 35.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 33.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 56.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 66.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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