Betting Lines
| Spread | STMN -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 174.5 Under |
| Money | SDAK +140 STMN -170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDAK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDAK +5 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | STMN -4.7 (+9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 179.9 (-14.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STMN -3.2 (+8.2) | 168.4 (-3.4) | 41% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STMN -2.8 (+7.8) | 167.0 (-2.0) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STMN -3.0 (+8.0) | 165.3 (-0.3) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | STMN -3.2 (+8.2) | 164.7 (+0.3) | 40% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | STMN 90 – 78 SDAK |
| Jan 8, 2026 | STMN 99 – 86 SDAK |
| Jan 12, 2025 | STMN 119 – 104 SDAK |
| Feb 18, 2024 | STMN 83 – 80 SDAK |
| Jan 19, 2024 | SDAK 74 – 73 STMN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDAK | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 12-4 |
| Home | 14-2 | 14-0 |
| Away | 4-11 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.4 | 81.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 86.6 | 76.1 |
| Massey | -4.4 (#237) | 3.5 (#111) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.55 (#224) | 0.86 (#99) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.95 (#240) | 0.88 (#108) |
| RPI | 0.470 (#235) | 0.541 (#102) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDAK | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 49.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 39.5% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 29.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 6.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 58.8% |
| TOV% | 12.9% | 14.0% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 21.6% |
| FT Rate | 32.1% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.8% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 62.1% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
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