Betting Lines
| Spread | STMN -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | STMN -1200 SDAK +850 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STMN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STMN +3 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | STMN -14.9 (-11.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.2 (+17.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STMN -11.1 (-8.1) | 146.7 (+16.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STMN -10.9 (-7.9) | 145.8 (+17.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STMN -11.5 (-8.5) | 145.8 (+17.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STMN -12.0 (-9.0) | 146.0 (+17.0) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | STMN 90 – 78 SDAK |
| Jan 8, 2026 | STMN 99 – 86 SDAK |
| Feb 20, 2025 | SDAK 85 – 80 STMN |
| Jan 12, 2025 | STMN 119 – 104 SDAK |
| Jan 19, 2024 | SDAK 74 – 73 STMN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STMN | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 5-11 |
| Home | 12-2 | 8-6 |
| Away | 6-9 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 74.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 81.5 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#142) | -10.0 (#321) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.29 (#201) | -1.56 (#312) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.00 (#169) | -1.96 (#314) |
| RPI | 0.478 (#219) | 0.408 (#327) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STMN | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 30.2 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 24.5% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 12.0% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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